Increasing intra- and inter-subtype HIV diversity despite declining HIV incidence in Uganda.

HIV incidence has been declining in Africa with scale-up of HIV interventions. However, there is limited data on HIV evolutionary trends in African populations with waning epidemics. We evaluated changes in HIV viral diversity and genetic divergence in southern Uganda over a twenty-five-year period spanning the introduction and scale-up of HIV prevention and treatment programs using HIV sequence and survey data from the Rakai Community Cohort Study, an open longitudinal population-based HIV surveillance cohort. Gag (p24) and env (gp41) HIV data were generated from persons living with HIV (PLHIV) in 31 inland semi-urban trading and agrarian communities (1994 to 2018) and four hyperendemic Lake Victoria fishing communities (2011 to 2018) under continuous surveillance. HIV subtype was assigned using the Recombination Identification Program with phylogenetic confirmation. Inter-subtype diversity was estimated using the Shannon diversity index and intra-subtype diversity with the nucleotide diversity and pairwise TN93 genetic distance. Genetic divergence was measured using root-to-tip distance and pairwise TN93 genetic distance analyses. Evolutionary dynamics were assessed among demographic and behavioral sub-groups, including by migration status. 9,931 HIV sequences were available from 4,999 PLHIV, including 3,060 and 1,939 persons residing in inland and fishing communities, respectively. In inland communities, subtype A1 viruses proportionately increased from 14.3% in 1995 to 25.9% in 2017 (p<0.001), while those of subtype D declined from 73.2% in 1995 to 28.2% in 2017 (p<0.001). The proportion of viruses classified as recombinants significantly increased by more than four-fold. Inter-subtype HIV diversity has generally increased. While p24 intra-subtype genetic diversity and divergence leveled off after 2014, diversity and divergence of gp41 increased through 2017. Inter- and intra-subtype viral diversity increased across all population sub-groups, including among individuals with no recent migration history or extra-community sexual partners. This study provides insights into population-level HIV evolutionary dynamics in declining African HIV epidemics following the scale-up of HIV prevention and treatment programs. Continued molecular surveillance may provide a better understanding of the dynamics driving population HIV evolution and yield important insights for epidemic control and vaccine development.

Bivalent mRNA COVID vaccines elicit predominantly cross-reactive CD4+ T cell clonotypes.

Bivalent COVID vaccines containing mRNA for ancestral and Omicron BA.5 spike proteins do not induce stronger T cell responses to Omicron BA.5 spike proteins than monovalent vaccines that contain only ancestral spike mRNA. The reasons for this finding have not been elucidated. Here, we show that healthy donors (HDs) and people living with HIV (PLWH) on antiretroviral therapy mostly target T cell epitopes that are not affected by BA.5 mutations. We use the functional expansion of specific T cells (FEST) assay to determine the percentage of CD4+ T cells that cross-recognize both spike proteins and those that are monoreactive for each protein. We show a predominance of cross-reactive CD4+ T cells; less than 10% percent of spike-specific CD4+ T cell receptors were BA.5 monoreactive in most HDs and PLWH. Our data suggest that the current bivalent vaccines do not induce robust BA.5-monoreactive T cell responses.

Longitudinal patterns in indeterminate HIV rapid antibody test results: a population-based, prospective cohort study.

Rapid HIV tests are critical to HIV surveillance and universal testing and treatment programs. We assessed longitudinal patterns in indeterminate HIV rapid test results in an African population-based cohort. Prospective HIV rapid antibody test results, defined by two parallel rapid tests, among participants aged 15-49 years from three survey rounds of the Rakai Community Cohort Study, Uganda, from 2013 to 2018, were assessed. An indeterminate result was defined as any weak positive result or when one test was negative and the other was positive. A total of 31,405 participants contributed 54,459 person-visits, with 15,713 participants contributing multiple visits and 7,351 participants contributing 3 visits. The prevalence of indeterminate results was 2.7% (1,490/54,469). Of the participants with multiple visits who initially tested indeterminate (n = 591), 40.4% were negative, 18.6% were positive, and 41.0% were indeterminate at the subsequent visit. Of the participants with two consecutive indeterminate results who had a third visit (n = 67), 20.9% were negative, 9.0% were positive, and 70.2% remained indeterminate. Compared to a prior negative result, a prior indeterminate result was strongly associated with a subsequent indeterminate result [adjusted prevalence ratio, 23.0 (95% CI = 20.0-26.5)]. Compared to men, women were more likely to test indeterminate than negative [adjusted odds ratio, 2.3 (95% CI = 2.0-2.6)]. Indeterminate rapid HIV test results are highly correlated within an individual and 0.6% of the population persistently tested indeterminate over the study period. A substantial fraction of people with an indeterminate result subsequently tested HIV positive at the next visit, underscoring the importance of follow-up HIV testing protocols.IMPORTANCERapid HIV tests are a critical tool for expanding HIV testing and treatment to end the HIV epidemic. The interpretation and management of indeterminate rapid HIV test results pose a unique challenge for connecting all people living with HIV to the necessary care and treatment. Indeterminate rapid HIV test results are characterized by any weak positive result or discordant results (when one test is negative and the other is positive). We systematically tested all participants of a Ugandan population-based, longitudinal cohort study regardless of prior test results or HIV status to quantify longitudinal patterns in rapid HIV test results. We found that a substantial fraction (>15%) of participants with indeterminate rapid test results subsequently tested positive upon follow-up testing at the next visit. Our findings demonstrate the importance of follow-up HIV testing protocols for indeterminate rapid HIV test results.

Prevalence of sexually transmitted infections among transgender women living with and without HIV in the eastern and southern United States.

BACKGROUND: Data on the epidemiology of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) among transgender women (TGW) with and without HIV are limited. METHODS: We analyzed baseline data collected from a cohort of adult TGW across 6 eastern and southern US cities between March 2018-August 2020 (n = 1,018). Participants completed oral HIV screening, provided self-collected rectal and urogenital specimens for chlamydia and gonorrhea testing, and provided sera specimens for syphilis testing. We assessed associations with ≥1 prevalent bacterial STI using modified Poisson regression. RESULTS: Bacterial STI prevalence was high and differed by HIV status: 32% among TGW with HIV and 11% among those without HIV (demographic-adjusted prevalence ratio = 1.91 [95%CI = 1.39-2.62]). Among TGW without HIV, bacterial STI prevalence differed by geographic region, race and ethnicity, and gender identity, and was positively associated with reporting >1 sexual partner, hazardous alcohol use, homelessness, having safety concerns regarding transit to healthcare, and no prior receipt of gender-affirming health services. Among TGW with HIV, older age was inversely associated with bacterial STI. CONCLUSIONS: TGW had a high prevalence of bacterial STIs. The prevalence and correlates of bacterial STI differed by HIV status, highlighting the unique needs and risks of TGW with and without HIV. Tailored interventions may reduce sexual health-related inequities.

Orthopoxvirus-Specific T-Cell Responses in Convalescent Mpox Patients.

Orthopoxvirus-specific T-cell responses were analyzed in 10 patients who had recovered from Mpox including 7 people with human immunodeficiency virus (PWH). Eight participants had detectable virus-specific T-cell responses, including a PWH who was not on antiretroviral therapy and a PWH on immunosuppressive therapy. These 2 participants had robust polyfunctional CD4+ T-cell responses to peptides from the 121L vaccinia virus (VACV) protein. T-cells from 4 of 5 HLA-A2-positive participants targeted at least 1 previously described HLA-A2-restricted VACV epitope, including an epitope targeted in 2 participants. These results advance our understanding of immunity in convalescent Mpox patients.

Longitudinal population-level HIV epidemiologic and genomic surveillance highlights growing gender disparity of HIV transmission in Uganda.

HIV incidence in eastern and southern Africa has historically been concentrated among girls and women aged 15-24 years. As new cases decline with HIV interventions, population-level infection dynamics may shift by age and gender. Here, we integrated population-based surveillance of 38,749 participants in the Rakai Community Cohort Study and longitudinal deep-sequence viral phylogenetics to assess how HIV incidence and population groups driving transmission have changed from 2003 to 2018 in Uganda. We observed 1,117 individuals in the incidence cohort and 1,978 individuals in the transmission cohort. HIV viral suppression increased more rapidly in women than men, however incidence declined more slowly in women than men. We found that age-specific transmission flows shifted: whereas HIV transmission to girls and women (aged 15-24 years) from older men declined by about one-third, transmission to women (aged 25-34 years) from men that were 0-6 years older increased by half in 2003 to 2018. Based on changes in transmission flows, we estimated that closing the gender gap in viral suppression could have reduced HIV incidence in women by half in 2018. This study suggests that HIV programmes to increase HIV suppression in men are critical to reduce incidence in women, close gender gaps in infection burden and improve men's health in Africa.

COVID-19 convalescent plasma therapy decreases inflammatory cytokines: a randomized controlled trial.

IMPORTANCE: This study examined the role that cytokines may have played in the beneficial outcomes found when outpatient individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 were transfused with COVID-19 convalescent plasma (CCP) early in their infection. We found that the pro-inflammatory cytokine IL-6 decreased significantly faster in patients treated early with CCP. Participants with COVID-19 treated with CCP later in the infection did not have the same effect. This decrease in IL-6 levels after early CCP treatment suggests a possible role of inflammation in COVID-19 progression. The evidence of IL-6 involvement brings insight into the possible mechanisms involved in CCP treatment mitigating SARS-CoV-2 severity.

Hundred-fold increase in SARS-CoV-2 spike antibody levels over three years in a hospital clinical laboratory.

IMPORTANCE: Despite the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and ongoing transmission, COVID-19 hospitalization and mortality rates continue to decline. Both the percent seropositive and antibody levels have risen over the past 3 years. Here, we observe more than 90% seropositivity as well as more than a hundred-fold increase in spike IgG levels in a tertiary hospital clinical immunology laboratory setting. Antibody effector functions (such as neutralization, opsonization, and complement activation) and cell-mediated immunity all contribute to protection from COVID-19 progression to hospitalization, and all correlate to the total SARS-CoV-2 antibody levels. We recommend therapeutic COVID-19 convalescent plasma be restricted to the top 20% of potential donors to maintain activity against ongoing SARS-CoV-2 variant evolution.

Dynamics of inflammatory responses after SARS-CoV-2 infection by vaccination status in the USA: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Cytokines and chemokines play a critical role in the response to infection and vaccination. We aimed to assess the longitudinal association of COVID-19 vaccination with cytokine and chemokine concentrations and trajectories among people with SARS-CoV-2 infection. METHODS: In this longitudinal, prospective cohort study, blood samples were used from participants enrolled in a multi-centre randomised trial assessing the efficacy of convalescent plasma therapy for ambulatory COVID-19. The trial was conducted in 23 outpatient sites in the USA. In this study, participants (aged ≥18 years) were restricted to those with COVID-19 before vaccination or with breakthrough infections who had blood samples and symptom data collected at screening (pre-transfusion), day 14, and day 90 visits. Associations between COVID-19 vaccination status and concentrations of 21 cytokines and chemokines (measured using multiplexed sandwich immunoassays) were examined using multivariate linear mixed-effects regression models, adjusted for age, sex, BMI, hypertension, diabetes, trial group, and COVID-19 waves (pre-alpha or alpha and delta). FINDINGS: Between June 29, 2020, and Sept 30, 2021, 882 participants recently infected with SARS-CoV-2 were enrolled, of whom 506 (57%) were female and 376 (43%) were male. 688 (78%) of 882 participants were unvaccinated, 55 (6%) were partly vaccinated, and 139 (16%) were fully vaccinated at baseline. After adjusting for confounders, geometric mean concentrations of interleukin (IL)-2RA, IL-7, IL-8, IL-15, IL-29 (interferon-λ), inducible protein-10, monocyte chemoattractant protein-1, and tumour necrosis factor-α were significantly lower among the fully vaccinated group than in the unvaccinated group at screening. On day 90, fully vaccinated participants had approximately 20% lower geometric mean concentrations of IL-7, IL-8, and vascular endothelial growth factor-A than unvaccinated participants. Cytokine and chemokine concentrations decreased over time in the fully and partly vaccinated groups and unvaccinated group. Log10 cytokine and chemokine concentrations decreased faster among participants in the unvaccinated group than in other groups, but their geometric mean concentrations were generally higher than fully vaccinated participants at 90 days. Days since full vaccination and type of vaccine received were not correlated with cytokine and chemokine concentrations. INTERPRETATION: Initially and during recovery from symptomatic COVID-19, fully vaccinated participants had lower concentrations of inflammatory markers than unvaccinated participants suggesting vaccination is associated with short-term and long-term reduction in inflammation, which could in part explain the reduced disease severity and mortality in vaccinated individuals. FUNDING: US Department of Defense, National Institutes of Health, Bloomberg Philanthropies, State of Maryland, Mental Wellness Foundation, Moriah Fund, Octapharma, HealthNetwork Foundation, and the Shear Family Foundation.

Comprehensive profiling of pre-infection antibodies identifies HIV targets associated with viremic control and viral load.

Background: High HIV viral load (VL) is associated with increased transmission risk and faster disease progression. HIV controllers achieve viral suppression without antiretroviral (ARV) treatment. We evaluated viremic control in a community-randomized trial with >48,000 participants. Methods: A massively multiplexed antibody profiling system, VirScan, was used to quantify pre- and post-infection antibody reactivity to HIV peptides in 664 samples from 429 participants (13 controllers, 135 viremic non-controllers, 64 other non-controllers, 217 uninfected persons). Controllers had VLs <2,000 copies/mL with no ARV drugs detected at the first HIV-positive visit and one year later. Viremic non-controllers had VLs 2,000 copies/mL with no ARV drugs detected at the first HIV-positive visit. Other non-controllers had either ARV drugs detected at the first HIV-positive visit (n=47) or VLs <2,000 copies/mL with no ARV drugs detected at only one HIV-positive visit (n=17). Results: We identified pre-infection HIV antibody reactivities that correlated with post-infection VL. Pre-infection reactivity to an epitope in the HR2 domain of gp41 was associated with controller status and lower VL. Pre-infection reactivity to an epitope in the C2 domain of gp120 was associated with non-controller status and higher VL. Different patterns of antibody reactivity were observed over time for these two epitopes. Conclusion: These studies suggest that pre-infection HIV antibodies are associated with controller status and modulation of HIV VL. These findings may inform research on antibody-based interventions for HIV treatment.

Early antibody treatment, inflammation, and risk of post-COVID conditions.

IMPORTANCE: Approximately 20% of individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 experienced long-term health effects, as defined PCC. However, it is unknown if there are any early biomarkers associated with PCC or whether early intervention treatments may decrease the risk of PCC. In a secondary analysis of a randomized clinical trial, this study demonstrates that among outpatients with SARS-CoV-2, increased IL-6 at time of infection is associated with increased odds of PCC. In addition, among individuals treated early, within 5 days of symptom onset, with COVID-19 convalescent plasma, there was a trend for decreased odds of PCC after adjusting for other demographic and clinical characteristics. Future treatment studies should be considered to evaluate the effect of early treatment and anti-IL-6 therapies on PCC development.

Prevalence and correlates of SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity among people who inject drugs in Baltimore, Maryland.

Background: SARS-CoV-2 serosurveys can help characterize disparities in SARS-CoV-2 infection and identify gaps in population immunity. Data on SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence among people who inject drugs (PWID) are limited. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional study between December 2020 and July 2022 among 561 participants in the AIDS Linked to the IntraVenous Experience (ALIVE) study-a community-based cohort of current and former PWID in Baltimore, Maryland. Serum samples were assayed for infection-induced anti-nucleocapsid (anti-N) and infection and/or vaccination-induced anti-spike-1 (anti-S) SARS-CoV-2 IgG. We estimated adjusted prevalence ratios (aPR) via modified Poisson regression models. Results: The median age was 59 years, 35% were female, 84% were non-Hispanic Black, and 16% reported recent injection drug use. Anti-N antibody prevalence was 26% and anti-S antibody prevalence was 63%. Anti-N and anti-S antibody prevalence increased over time. Being employed (aPR=1.53 [95%CI=1.11-2.11]) was associated with higher anti-N prevalence, while a cancer history (aPR=0.40 [95%CI=0.17-0.90]) was associated with lower anti-N prevalence. HIV infection was associated with higher anti-S prevalence (aPR=1.13 [95%CI=1.02-1.27]), while younger age and experiencing homelessness (aPR=0.78 [95%CI=0.60-0.99]) were factors associated with lower anti-S prevalence. Substance use-related behaviors were not significantly associated with anti-N or anti-S prevalence. Conclusions: SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence increased over time among current and former PWID, suggesting cumulative increases in the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection and vaccination; however, there were disparities in infection-induced seroprevalence and infection and/or vaccine-induced seroprevalence within this study sample. Dedicated prevention and vaccination programs are needed to prevent disparities in infection and gaps in population immunity among PWID during emerging epidemics.

Transfusion reactions associated with COVID-19 convalescent plasma in outpatient clinical trials.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 convalescent plasma (CCP) is an important therapeutic option for outpatients at high risk of hospitalization from SARS-CoV-2 infection. We assessed the safety of outpatient CCP transfusions administered during clinical trials. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: We analyzed data pertaining to transfusion-related reactions from two randomized controlled trials in the U.S. that evaluated the efficacy of CCP versus control plasma in various ambulatory settings. Multivariable logistic regression was used to assess whether CCP was associated with transfusion reactions, after adjusting for potential confounders. RESULTS: The combined study reported 79/1351 (5.9%) adverse events during the transfusion visit, with the majority 62/1351 (4.6%) characterized by mild, allergic-type findings of urticaria, and/or pruritus consistent with minor allergic transfusion reactions; the other reported events were attributed to the patients' underlying disease, COVID-19, or vasovagal in nature. We found no difference in the likelihood of allergic transfusion reactions between those receiving CCP versus control plasma (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 0.75; 95% CI, 0.43-1.31). Risk of urticaria and/or pruritus increased with a pre-existing diagnosis of asthma (AOR, 2.33; 95% CI, 1.16-4.67). We did not observe any CCP-attributed antibody disease enhancement in participants with COVID-19 or increased risk of infection. There were no life-threatening severe transfusion reactions and no patients required hospitalization related to transfusion-associated complications. DISCUSSION: Outpatient plasma administration was safely performed for nearly 1400 participants. CCP is a safe therapeutic option for outpatients at risk of hospitalization from COVID-19.

High level of HIV viral suppression in a cross-sectional study of Ugandan men with urethritis and bacterial STI.

BACKGROUND: Urethritis associated with non-viral sexually transmitted infections (STI) increases the risk of HIV acquisition and transmission in those living with HIV (LWH) without viral load suppression (VLS). Compared to women, men typically have lower rates of HIV VLS. We assessed the prevalence of VLS and drug resistance mutations in men LWH and urethral discharge syndrome (UDS) in Kampala, Uganda. METHODS: Men with UDS were recruited in Kampala October 2019-November 2020. Medical, demographic, and behavioural data were collected with biological samples. All reactive HIV results (rapid, sequential algorithm) underwent confirmatory HIV antibody- and HIV incidence-testing, and viral load (VL) measurement. The pol and gp41 regions were sequenced on samples with VLs >1000 cpm, phylogenetic trees were generated, and resistance mutations were investigated. RESULTS: 50 of 250 participants (20%) had reactive HIV rapid tests and 48/50 (96%) were aware of their HIV status and using antiretroviral therapy (ART). The median age was 38 years (IQR 32-45), 27/50 (54%) had engaged in transactional sex, and 30/50 (60%) reported alcohol before sex. VLS was present in 46/50 (92%). There were no major resistance mutations present in any samples analyzed. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of HIV and VLS was greater in these men than in the general Ugandan adult population. Most men LWH were on ART and thus less likely to transmit HIV despite demonstrating sexual behaviours associated with high-risk of STIs. These data emphasize that high levels of ART coverage and VLS are achievable among men with UDS in urban Kampala.

SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence among blood donors in Uganda: 2019-2022.

BACKGROUND: The true burden of COVID-19 in low- and middle-income countries remains poorly characterized, especially in Africa. Even prior to the availability of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines, countries in Africa had lower numbers of reported COVID-19 related hospitalizations and deaths than other regions globally. METHODS: Ugandan blood donors were evaluated between October 2019 and April 2022 for IgG antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid (N), spike (S), and five variants of the S protein using multiplexed electrochemiluminescence immunoassays (MesoScale Diagnostics, Rockville, MD). Seropositivity for N and S was assigned using manufacturer-provided cutoffs and trends in seroprevalence were estimated by quarter. Statistically significant associations between N and S antibody seropositivity and donor characteristics in November-December 2021 were assessed by chi-square tests. RESULTS: A total of 5393 blood unit samples from donors were evaluated. N and S seropositivity increased throughout the pandemic to 82.6% in January-April 2022. Among seropositive individuals, N and S antibody levels increased ≥9-fold over the study period. In November-December 2021, seropositivity to N and S antibody was higher among repeat donors (61.3%) compared with new donors (55.1%; p = .043) and among donors from Kampala (capital city of Uganda) compared with rural regions (p = .007). Seropositivity to S antibody was significantly lower among HIV-seropositive individuals (58.8% vs. 84.9%; p = .009). CONCLUSIONS: Despite previously reported low numbers of COVID-19 cases and related deaths in Uganda, high SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and increasing antibody levels among blood donors indicated that the country experienced high levels of infection over the course of the pandemic.

Age Patterns of HSV-2 Incidence and Prevalence in Two Ugandan Communities: A Catalytic Incidence Model Applied to Population-Based Seroprevalence Data.

BACKGROUND: Herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) is an incurable sexually transmitted infection associated with increased risk of acquiring and transmitting human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). HSV-2 is highly prevalent in sub-Saharan Africa, but population-level estimates of incidence are sparse. METHODS: We measured HSV-2 prevalence from cross-sectional serological data among adults aged 18-49 years in 2 south-central Uganda communities (fishing, inland). We identified risk factors for seropositivity, then inferred age patterns of HSV-2 with a Bayesian catalytic model. RESULTS: HSV-2 prevalence was 53.6% (n = 975/1819; 95% confidence interval, 51.3%-55.9%). Prevalence increased with age, was higher in the fishing community, and among women, reaching 93.6% (95% credible interval, 90.2%-96.6%) by age 49 years. Factors associated with HSV-2 seropositivity included more lifetime sexual partners, HIV positive status, and lower education. HSV-2 incidence peakied at age 18 years for women and 19-20 years for men. HIV prevalence was up to 10-fold higher in HSV-2-positive individuals. CONCLUSIONS: HSV-2 prevalence and incidence were extremely high, with most infections occurring in late adolescence. Interventions against HSV-2, such as future vaccines or therapeutics, must target young populations. Remarkably higher HIV prevalence among HSV-2-positive individuals underscores this population as a priority for HIV prevention.

Longitudinal population-level HIV epidemiologic and genomic surveillance highlights growing gender disparity of HIV transmission in Uganda.

HIV incidence in eastern and southern Africa has historically been concentrated among girls and women aged 15-24 years. As new cases decline with HIV interventions, population-level infection dynamics may shift by age and gender. Here, we integrated population-based surveillance of 38,749 participants in the Rakai Community Cohort Study and longitudinal deep sequence viral phylogenetics to assess how HIV incidence and population groups driving transmission have changed from 2003 to 2018 in Uganda. We observed 1,117 individuals in the incidence cohort and 1,978 individuals in the transmission cohort. HIV viral suppression increased more rapidly in women than men, however incidence declined more slowly in women than men. We found that age-specific transmission flows shifted, while HIV transmission to girls and women (aged 15-24 years) from older men declined by about one third, transmission to women (aged 25-34 years) from men that were 0-6 years older increased by half in 2003 to 2018. Based on changes in transmission flows, we estimated that closing the gender gap in viral suppression could have reduced HIV incidence in women by half in 2018. This study suggests that HIV programs to increase HIV suppression in men are critical to reduce incidence in women, close gender gaps in infection burden and improve men's health in Africa.

HIV incidence and mortality in transgender women in the eastern and southern USA: a multisite cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological monitoring of HIV among transgender women is minimal despite prioritisation of this group in the US National HIV/AIDS Strategy (2022-2025). We aimed to estimate HIV incidence in a multisite cohort of transgender women in the eastern and southern USA. Participant deaths were identified during follow-up; thus, we felt it was an ethical imperative to report mortality alongside HIV incidence. METHODS: In this study, we established a multisite cohort across two modes: a site-based, technology-enhanced mode in six cities (Atlanta, Baltimore, Boston, Miami, New York City, and Washington, DC) and an exclusively digital mode that spanned 72 eastern and southern US cities that matched the six site-based cities based on population size and demographics. Trans feminine adults (≥18 years) who were not living with HIV were eligible and followed up for at least 24 months. Participants completed surveys and oral fluid HIV testing with clinical confirmation. We ascertained deaths through community and clinical sources. We estimated HIV incidence and mortality using the number of HIV seroconversions and deaths, respectively, divided by person-years accumulated from enrolment. Logistic regression models were used to identify predictors of HIV seroconversion (primary outcome) or death. FINDINGS: Between March 22, 2018, and Aug 31, 2020, we enrolled 1312 participants with 734 (56%) in site-based and 578 (44%) in digital modes. At the 24-month assessment, 633 (59%) of 1076 eligible participants consented to extending participation. 1084 (83%) of 1312 participants were retained at this analysis based on the study definition of loss to follow-up. As of May 25, 2022, the cohort participants had contributed 2730 accumulated person-years to the analytical dataset. Overall HIV incidence was 5·5 (95% CI 2·7-8·3) per 1000 person-years and incidence was higher among Black participants and those living in the south. Nine participants died during the study. The overall mortality rate was 3·3 (95% CI 1·5-6·3) per 1000 person-years, and the rate was higher among Latinx participants. Identical predictors of HIV seroconversion and death included residence in southern cities, sexual partnerships with cisgender men, and use of stimulants. Participation in the digital cohort and seeking care for gender transition were inversely associated with both outcomes. INTERPRETATION: As HIV research and interventions are increasingly delivered online, differences by mode highlight the need for continued community and location-based efforts to reach the most marginalised transgender women. Our findings underscore community calls for interventions that address social and structural contexts that affect survival and other health concerns alongside HIV prevention. FUNDING: National Institutes of Health. TRANSLATION: For the Spanish translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.